Week 14 College Football
The Week 14 edition of “TSI vs the Field” takes my proprietary college football model, the T Shoe Index, to compare and contrast with other respected predictive models – SP+, FPI, and Sagarin – to find where we align and disagree on the college football schedule. There are Week 14 college football betting opportunities based on model alignment and games where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
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Week 14 College Football Model Alignment
Model Consensus
Nebraska vs Iowa (-6.5), O/U 39
Nebraska is coming off of a thumping by Penn State, 37-10, and is just 2-3 in in its last five games. Iowa eked by Michigan State, 20-17, and is 3-2 in its last five. Iowa has historically not been great ATS on the road, but this season they’re 4-0 ATS away from Kinnick Stadium. Nebraska is 3-2-1 ATS at home. Since 2020, Iowa would’ve only covered this number against Nebraska once, by a half point, in 2021. The last two meetings have each finished 13-10 in favor of the Hawkeyes.
The model average projection for this game is Iowa -4 with a variance of 2.6 points. TSI is the strongest Hawkeye projection at just -5, while the other three models fall between Iowa -2.5 and Iowa -4.5, indicating we’re likely to see another rock fight that ends with a game winning Iowa field goal, or perhaps a late Nebraska field goal to cut a seven point lead to four. Either way, the data strongly suggests a Cornhusker play here.
College Football Pick: Nebraska +6.5
Model Disagreement
West Virginia vs Texas Tech (-23.5), O/U 53.5
This game is interesting from the standpoint that it features two teams currently on 4-0 ATS streaks, and one of those teams is positioning itself for a conference title and College Football Playoff seeding, while the other will miss a bowl game entirely this year. WVU looked dead in the water earlier in the year but has rebounded nicely on the back half of the season and I’m sure would love to end this season on a high note, by playing spoiler to Texas Tech in Morgantown.
The average model projection for this game is Texas Tech -23, but a variance of 13.4 points! SP+ has Texas Tech by 31, TSI projects Tech -24, but FPI and Sagarin make it way under the spread, projecting TTU -18. So, the models cannot agree on what to make of this game, and I think the “art” angle would apply also, because while WVU very well may want to play spoiler, devil’s advocate says those players could already have one eye on the offseason and potentially the transfer portal after a bowl-less season. So, who knows what you’re going to get out of the Mountaineers in this game. I’m going to pass altogether.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
