It’s Conference Championship Saturday across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of title games using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4 p.m. ET: Georgia (-1.5, 48.5) vs Alabama
This SEC Championship game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons.
Georgia (11-1, ranked 3rd) just held off Georgia Tech 16-9 but failed to cover as 16.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Alabama (10-2, ranked 9th) just edged Auburn 27-20, covering as 5.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
Early in the week, we saw Georgia tick up from -1.5 to -2.5. However, over the past 24-hours leading into gameday we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on Alabama, dropping the Crimson Tide back down from +2.5 to +1.5. Circa has gotten down to Alabama +1, further evidence of pros out in Vegas playing the dog.
This late movement toward Alabama is especially notable because the public is hammering Georgia (74% of spread bets at DraftKings). However, despite the Bulldogs receiving such lopsided support the line is right back to where it started.
Essentially, we are seeing a sharp line freeze in favor of Alabama, as the line has barely budged off the opener despite the heavy Bulldogs support.
Also, gameday movement is breaking toward Alabama, which is important because it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in.
Alabama has notable “bet against the public” value as the Crimson Tide are only taking in 26% of spread bets at DraftKings (but 33% of dollars) in an extremely heavily bet late afternoon game on ABC.
Alabama beat Georgia 24-21 back in late September, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
8 p.m. ET: Indiana vs Ohio State (-4.5, 47)
This Big Ten Championship will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Indianapolis Colts.
Indiana (12-0, ranked 2nd) just demolished Purdue 56-3, easily covering as 28.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Ohio State (12-0, ranked 1st) just brushed aside Michigan 27-9, covering as 9.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 6-point neutral site favorite.
The public can’t believe the line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Ohio State.
However, despite receiving 74% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Ohio State fall from -6 to -4.5, with some shops even inching down to -4.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Buckeyes to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Indiana plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Hoosiers.
Indiana has notable “bet against the public” public as the Hoosiers are only receiving roughly one-quarter of tickets in the most heavily bet, nationally televised game of the night.
At Circa, Indiana is taking in 39% of spread bets but a hefty 67% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the unpopular dog.
Wiseguys have also leaned under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 47, with some shops inching down to 46.5 on gameday. The movement has been one-sided in favor of the under all week despite the fact that the public is playing the over (70% of bets at DraftKings).
At Circa, the under is taking in 57% of bets and 78% of dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers out in Vegas banking on a lower scoring game.
