Today we kick off Conference Championship Week with a 4-pack of title games across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Kennesaw State (-2.5, 60.5) at Jacksonville State
This is the Conference USA championship game.
Kennesaw State (9-3) just outlasted Liberty 48-42 in double overtime, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Jacksonville State (8-4) just took down Western Kentucky 37-34, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Jacksonville State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Sharps seem to have thought the wrong was favored at the open and have gotten down hard on Kennesaw State, flipping the Owls from a 1.5-point road dog to a 2.5-point road favorite. Essentially, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Kennesaw State.
At DraftKings, Kennesaw State is taking in 58% of spread bets and 66% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kennesaw State is receiving 59% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating slight public support but also respected smart money in favor of the road team.
Kennesaw State has the slightly better scoring offense (29.3 vs 28.8) and scoring defense (26.2 PPG vs 28.3 PPG).
This is also a revenge spot for Kennesaw State, who lost to Jacksonville State on the road three weeks ago 35-26.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves by playing the Owls on the moneyline at -135.
At DraftKings, Kennesaw State is taking in 55% of moneyline bets and 61% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a straight up Owls victory.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen a rash of over money hit the market, raising the number up from 56.5 to 60.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 64% of bets and 75% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls for mid 40s with cloudy skies and mild 3-5 MPH winds.
8 p.m. ET: North Texas (-2.5, 66.5) at Tulane
This is the American Conference championship game.
North Texas (11-1, ranked 24th) just brushed aside Temple 52-25, easily covering as 20.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Tulane (10-2, ranked 20th) just blanked Charlotte 27-0 but failed to cover as 30.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with North Texas listed as a 3-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the chalk with North Texas.
However, despite receiving 68% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen North Texas fall from -3 to -2.5.
Why would oddsmakers drop the line (especially off the key number of 3) and make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering North Texas to begin with?
Because respected smart money jumped on Tulane plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home dog.
Tulane is the top “bet against the public” play of the night as they are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ABC.
At Circa, Tulane is only taking in 16% of spread bets but 35% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of pros out in the desert grabbing the points with the Green Wave.
Tulane has buy-low value as a dog who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high trendy favorite who did cover the previous week.
Tulane has the better scoring defense, allowing 22.8 PPG while North Texas is giving up 26.4 PPG.
The Green Wave are a perfect 6-0 at home this season.
In terms of the total, it opened at 66.5, reached as high as 67.5 and has come back down to the opener of 66.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 71% of bets and 85% of dollars. However, Circa is showing 27% of bets and 51% of dollars on the under.
The forecast calls for low 50s with cloudy skies, 5-10 MPH winds and possibly some rain early in the game.
