Steve Makinen: College Football Week 14 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks

College Football Week 14 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:

A 9-10 ATS finish last week, marred by Saturday night results and a brutal effort in the Group of 5 games, has my college football Best Bets record sitting at 111-124 heading into this week’s regular-season finales. If you were just looking for my opinion on some of the biggest games last week, you were probably thrilled with my performance, as I hit with BYU, Texas, Michigan and Oregon in the top Power 5 games. Of course, they all count the same if you just tabulate wins and losses. It’s been beyond frustrating this past month, as I’ve been virtually spinning my wheels, giving up a game or two in my quest for plus-.500 for almost every week. I’ve prepared some regular-season finale systems for this week’s VSiN College Football Analytics Report to help me sort through the lineup. After poring through that, the betting splits, the current strength ratings and everything else at my disposal, here is what I have come up with for my Week 14 college football best bets.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2025

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan

The last Tuesday night of 2025 MACtion finds two big road favorites, which — without looking into details — would probably have to be considered a tough spot for a visitor. However, the devil is in the details in terms of college football season-finale home dogs, as since 2015, home underdogs of seven points or more are just 23-134 SU and 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season-finale games. As I analyzed the merits of Tuesday night’s games, instead of looking at which home dog was worse, as that really isn’t a question in this case between EMU and UMass, rather, I looked at which road favorite was more worthy of the “honor.” Since Bowling Green has lost five straight games outright and ATS while scoring just 67 points, they are essentially disqualified. On the other hand, Western Michigan has somewhat quietly played great football recently and has a chance to wrap up a spot in the MAC title game with a win. I use the word quietly because the Broncos have mostly been winning with defense, allowing just 13.5 PPG in conference action. Eastern Michigan has been an underdog eight times and is just 2-6 in those games, not demonstrating the type of grit it would take to knock off a team with title hopes. Late line movement has pushed this one to 10 points, righteously with the stakes involved.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 10 points with Western Michigan

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2025

Ohio at Buffalo

Ohio is in the mix for a berth in the MAC title game next week but needs a win in a tough spot at Buffalo to have a chance. What makes this a tough spot? For one, Buffalo has been competitive but inconsistent, and as a result needs a win to clinch bowl eligibility. An intriguing regular-season finale angle involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 27-56 SU but 45-36-2 ATS (55.6%). This is also a revenge spot for the Bulls after they were routed 47-17 a year ago at Ohio. Buffalo is 16-15 SU and 20-10-1 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since ’16. This is also a game with heavy action (83% handle at DraftKings) on the road chalk Bobcats. When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%).

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Buffalo +7 to be very competitive versus Ohio U

Utah at Kansas

Kansas is another team hoping to earn a bowl bid with a huge upset win over Utah this weekend. I see two problems for the Jayhawks, however. First, this season has been a major disappointment for coach Lance Leipold and Co., as I believe they had the talent, led by QB Jalon Daniels, to be a fringe contender in the Big 12 this season. Second, they are facing a Utah team that is consistently taking care of business this season and is flying high after an improbable comeback last week against KSU. Ranked teams coming off a close win of seven points or fewer in which they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 222-52 SU and 157-115-2 ATS (57.7%) surge when favored in the next game since October of ’15. As it is, home underdogs of seven points or more are just 23-134 SU and 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season-finale games. The Utes still have some big dreams of their own, at the top of the list, getting a 10th win. In season-finale games since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 88-12 SU and 61-38-1 ATS (61.6%). There is also a strong road ranked team system angle backing coach Kyle Whittingham’s team here: In Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are 141-36 SU and 98-76-3 ATS (56.3%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than six points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 120-17 SU and 77-57-3 ATS (57.5%) in that same Week 12 and later time span.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll back Utah (-11.5) to eliminate Kansas from bowl consideration

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech

Some big surprises always seem to occur in the final regular-season Thanksgiving weekend in college football. Could this renewal of the Georgia-Georgia Tech rivalry offer up one of those shockers? I’m not sure, but I don’t think it’s going to be as easy as the oddsmakers are making it look for the Bulldogs. Just a few weeks ago, it would have been improbable for us to be looking at a +13.5-point line here for the Yellow Jackets. They were 8-0, ranked in the top 10, and at the same time, Georgia was floundering with a 3-4 ATS record. However, Tech has gone 1-2 since, but it hasn’t been a complete unraveling, as they have scored 30.7 PPG in the three-game skid. The Pitt game last week got away late and wound up in a 14-point setback. Well, ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 62-23 SU and 53-31-1 ATS (63.1%) in the next game since November of ’21. Coach Kirby Smart’s team has not lost to rival Tech since 2016, although the Yellow Jackets are definitely closing the gap, having won three straight ATS. This revenge spot offers up a system: Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 50-31 ATS (61.7%).

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Georgia Tech +13.5 to make it competitive again with UGA

San Diego State at New Mexico

There has been plenty of calamity in recent weeks in the Mountain West, setting up this game as a virtual play-in game for a trip to the conference championship game. San Diego State has managed to maintain its spot as the only one-loss team despite not playing all that well offensively in recent weeks. According to this system, however, that shouldn’t matter in terms of this game versus upstart New Mexico: Over the last 12 years, teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 85-61 ATS (58.2%) in the follow-up game. The reason the Aztecs remain atop the MWC is their defense, as they have allowed 10 points or fewer in all but three games and really had only a couple of hiccups in that regard all season long. While New Mexico’s early season offensive attack may have been capable of causing another hiccup, I don’t think the Lobos have that momentum any longer, putting up just 20 points on Air Force and Colorado State the last two weeks. Those are two of the three worst defenses in the league. They say defense travels. In a key MWC game, I’ll take the league’s undisputed top defense as a small favorite.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll go with San Diego State -1.5 at New Mexico

Texas A&M at Texas

Two of the top offenses in the SEC over the last month will go head-to-head in a huge rivalry game in Austin on Friday. The total doesn’t necessarily reflect that the two offenses are rolling, as oddsmakers have set the number at a rather low 51.5. My Effective Strength and Bettors’ Ratings indicate the number should be 54 and 53.6, respectively. There is also a nice SEC angle that indicates Over the total is 20-7 (74.1%) in SEC non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021. Looking closer at the recent numbers these teams have put up, A&M has topped the 30-point mark in seven straight games and QB Marcel Reed has been prolific in both running and throwing the football. The defense has also allowed 29.3 PPG in its last four SEC outings. Meanwhile, the Texas offense has rolled in three of the last four games, and QB Arch Manning is coming off his best outing of the season in a 52-38 win over Arkansas. The Longhorns also have allowed 35.3 PPG in their last four. I know this rivalry is intense and both teams will be ready to tear each other apart, but the way these teams have been playing, I expect it to be an up-and-down-the-field type of game. 

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Let’s go Over 51.5 in Texas A&M-Texas

Temple at North Texas

For as much as North Texas has been the country’s top scoring team this season, it’s still been a dangerous thing to lay big points in late-season games, even for ranked teams. Note these two systems. First, since 2015, home favorites of more than 20 points are 59-6 SU but just 26-39 ATS (40%) in season finales. Second, in games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 128-14 SU but just 60-76-2 ATS (44.1%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 45-12 SU and 34-23 ATS (59.6%) since ’17. There is, of course, a lot at stake for UNT in terms of the CFP this week, so naturally it would be understandable for bettors to flock to their side. At last check, 97% of the handle at DraftKings has come in on the Mean Green. Even still, those making the numbers have dropped the line from UNT -20.5 to -19.5. Kind of curious, isn’t it? Temple is usually a pretty pesky dog and boasts a 23-12 (65.7%) ATS record coming off a SU loss since ’20. They are also going for a sixth, bowl-clinching win. An intriguing regular-season finale angle involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 27-56 SU but 45-36-2 ATS (55.6%).

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll go against the grain and back Temple to cover the +19.5

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2025

Kentucky at Louisville

Rivalry games can really add some spice to the mix when one of the teams goes into a season finale one game short of bowl eligibility. Kentucky is the team that is a game short in this one, despite playing better football than Louisville over the last month. Regarding the Wildcats’ hopes for a postseason game: An intriguing regular-season finale angle involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 27-56 SU but 45-36-2 ATS (55.6%). 

Not only are the Wildcats playing better (3-1 SU and ATS in the last four) than Louisville (lost last three SU and ATS), they are also the underdog here, and the team with the healthier QB situation, as Cardinals QB Miller Moss is again questionable here. Oh, and they are also the road team, which has proven extremely beneficial in this rivalry: Road teams are 11-5 SU and 13-3 ATS in UK-UL in-state rivalry since 2008. If that weren’t enough, recent non-conference records give a huge edge to head coach Mark Stoops’ team: Louisville is 7-14 (33.3%) ATS in non-conference games since 2021, Kentucky is 21-8 (72.4%) ATS in non-conference games since 2018.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Kentucky +3 to fight for that bowl bid

Ohio State at Michigan

Last season, I regretfully stayed away from “The Game” with wagering matters, as knowing that Ohio State was probably much better, but wearing all the pressure in the contest because of what had gone on recently in the rivalry. Last year’s line (-19) at home was an almost impossible beat. This year’s line, -10 at Michigan, seems just as tough, especially since my ratings have the Wolverines as about a 5-point better team now than they were at this time a year ago.

Let’s be real about this: These are the last two national champion programs. Should there really be a double-digit home underdog point spread associated with the contest? We know all season that in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 217-110 SU and 189-129-9 ATS (59.4%). Not surprisingly, most of the money (79% of handle at DK) is on the top-ranked Buckeyes. When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Despite the action, the line has dumped towards the Wolverines. All things considered, until something changes in the series, I have to back Big Blue.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’m on Michigan +10 versus Ohio State

Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh

It was this time last year that Miami’s season and CFP dreams went up in smoke, as they lost as heavy road favorites at Syracuse in a shocking upset. The number (-7) this time around for the Hurricanes’ season finale is a lot more realistic, and I like their chances to end on a high note and enhance their CFP chances because of it. After all, since 2015, home underdogs of 7 points or more are just 23-134 SU and 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season finale games. The money action at DraftKings is quite the opposite of what you’d normally see for a game like this, as 82% of the handle is backing home dog Pitt. Even still, the line isn’t budging off of 7. 

With the Panthers tied atop the ACC standings and needing a win to maintain hope of a ACC-title game berth, they will face not one, but two difficult systems based upon their upset of Georgia Tech last week: 1) Teams coming off an upset win over a Top-15 ranked team are 118-86 SU but just 87-116-1 ATS (42.9%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016. 2) Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 63-87 SU and 65-82-3 ATS (44.2%) since September 2019. These teams are also 73-34 Under the total (68.2%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021. Miami QB Carson Beck transferred here for games like this, if not this exact opportunity.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll go Miami -7 at Pitt

Penn State at Rutgers

After as rough of a season as it once was for Penn State, one that bottomed out with the firing of former head coach James Franklin and a 0-6 Big Ten record at one point, for the Nittany Lions to have rallied to within a win of bowl contention would be nothing short of remarkable. All that stands in the way of realizing those bowl game goals is plodding Rutgers, who will try to put up some fight as a 13.5-point underdog. Well, since 2015, home underdogs of 7 points or more are just 23-134 SU and 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season finale games. And Rutgers is on a 2-12 ATS skid as a Big Ten home underdog. 

That said, I do not like at all how the line has ballooned up since opening at -11.5, and the fact that 93% of the handle and 83% of the bets are on PSU at DraftKings makes me extremely leery. With that in mind, I love the following totals system: Big 10 home underdogs of >= 11.5 points in weeks 11 or later in the season have gone Over the total at a 23-8 (74.2%) rate since 2017. Rutgers is averaging 35.3 PPG at home this season, and PSU comes off its best offensive outburst since losing QB Drew Allar.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Over 56.5 in Penn State-Rutgers

Virginia Tech at Virginia

Virginia is another team in the mix for a spot in the ACC title game next weekend, and for as much as the Cavaliers haven’t been as good lately as they were earlier in the season, they’ve still managed to position themselves in a prime spot. Thus, they will have plenty of motivation this week against rival Virginia Tech, who seems to have already moved on to 2026 after hiring new head coach James Franklin. 

The Hokies have lost five of their last six and have little chance to derail Virginia’s title hopes. UVA also has a great shot at some payback from last year’s one-sided 37-17 decision in Blacksburg. College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 114-22 SU and 85-46-5 ATS (64.9%) since 2016. 

The Cavaliers are also in a nice line spot according to this angle: In games week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 128-14 SU but just 60-76-2 ATS (44.1%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 45-12 SU and 34-23 ATS (59.6%) since 2017. Highly motivated quality team versus a poor team playing out the string. I’ll take the former.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 9.5 points with Virginia

LSU at Oklahoma

Oklahoma and its elite defense has itself in playoff position but could use a big outing versus LSU on Saturday to lift the chances. Honestly, they couldn’t have picked much better of a time to be taking on this LSU team, as the Tigers have moved on from their coach after a disappointing season, and are likely to be without QB Garrett Nussmeier again this week. Without him a week ago, the offense put up just 23 points in a 3-point win over Conference USA foe Western Kentucky. That continued the struggles on that side of the ball this season, as they have scored just 22.6 PPG, 7.1 more than their opponents allow on average. These are very poor numbers for a SEC team that was expected to be elite in that regard this season. 

Against the country’s #2 defense in terms of Effective Points Allowed, down their starting QB, what are the chances LSU can score enough to compete? Not good in my opinion. Now OU isn’t the best offensively either, but QB John Mateer seems to be coming around again. 

There are a couple of side systems I have my eye on, but I’ll show this one against LSU: Some of the best season-finale types of teams to fade have been the winning teams that don’t score a lot, as teams with winning records and scoring 24 PPG or fewer have gone just 20-20 SU and 12-29 ATS (29.3%) in their season finale games. There’s also a strong totals angle in play: College football season finale games expected to be defensive slugfests have been just that, as of the last 22 season finale games with totals less than 40, Under the total has gone 16-5-1 (76.2%).

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Oklahoma -10 and Under 36.5 in Norman

UAB at Tulsa

My recent home/road true performance studies revealed some very noteworthy things for specific teams across the country. One of the teams most affected was UAB, who, in short, was worthy of your betting dollar at home, but poison on the road. In this season finale game, a season in which the Blazers fired their head coach and sit at 3-8, they are on the road. To me, the circumstances make them an auto-fade. In all, UAB is 6-18 (25%) in Road/Neutral games over the last three seasons. 

Host Tulsa will also have some motivation for revenge on their minds, as they lost at 3-9 UAB last year, 59-21, a truly embarrassing effort. Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes, as teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 229-180 ATS (56%) since 2016.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 8.5 points with Tulsa

Florida International at Sam Houston State

I took the bait, hook, line, and sinker as they say, falling for Sam Houston last week on the road when it looked like the Bearkats were turning their pathetic season around. If I’m not mistaken, they may have even taken a 10-0 lead in the game before falling 31-17. The latter part of the game was more the SHU team we have become accustomed to this season, and it gives me no reason to believe they will fight to get a season-ending positive here as a 9.5-point underdog to 6-5 FIU. 

Since 2015, home underdogs of 7 points or more are just 23-134 SU and 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season finale games. The Panthers will be backed by a nice won-lost angle here as well: In season finale games since 2015, when there has been a difference of 4 wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 88-12 SU & 61-38-1 ATS (61.6%). 

Not to mention that surging FIU, with three straight wins, will also be seeking revenge for a 2024 loss and will be backed by a pair of revenge systems. 1) College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 114-22 SU and 85-46-5 ATS (64.9%) since 2016. 2) Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 229-180 ATS (56%) since 2016.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: FIU -9.5 is the play for me at Sam Houston

Charlotte at Tulane

My college football true road performance study revealed that Charlotte is essentially a better team on the road than it is at home. While rare, the 49ers backed up my theory last week in a 35-3 easy cover loss at Georgia. For this week, they will be facing another huge road line and are being bet against heavily since Tulane may have a CFP berth on the line. 

At -29.5, 76% of the handle and 81% of the bets at DraftKings are backing the heavy favorite. That is always a caution sign to me, and while Tulane continues to maintain its record as being a solid performer as a favorite, I can never endorse paying too much for a team, and my Power Ratings indicate this game is overpriced by over 2 points. Plus, from a systematic standpoint, since 2015, home favorites of more than 20 points are 59-6 SU but just 26-39 ATS (40%) in season finale games. I don’t think Tulane will struggle to win the game, but I do expect Charlotte to play well enough to gain some positive end-of-season momentum for first-year head coach Tim Albin.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll go Charlotte +29.5 to end the season with a cover

Iowa State at Oklahoma State

Honestly, what gives on the line for this Iowa State-Oklahoma State season finale contest? My Power Ratings are indicating that this game is mispriced by over 5 points, and it is the poor team that has lost 10 straight games that is overpriced? Why would the tide be turning for the Cowboys? Is it because they have won three straight games? Oh, I meant three straight games ATS. I really don’t think another cover here is going to do much to impact this struggling program’s offseason. Iowa State, meanwhile, still has plenty to play for, heading to a bowl game again and looking for an eighth win. The Cyclones also come off what might have been their best game of the season, a 38-14 rout of Kansas. 

I’ve mentioned it already a few times, but since 2015, home underdogs of 7 points or more are just 23-134 SU and 62-93-2 ATS (40%) in season finale games. Additionally, in season finale games since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, when the better team has been the road team in the matchup, the record has been 88-12 SU and 61-38-1 ATS (61.6%). In the end, though, the price of the contest is the main reason for me playing it, as I had to double and triple-check if there were any significant ISU injuries to consider. I found none.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Iowa State -14 at Oklahoma State on Saturday

Wisconsin at Minnesota

A couple of teams heading in opposite directions battle in Minneapolis on Saturday for the rights to one of college football’s most prized rivalry trophies, the Paul Bunyan Axe. For whatever reason, home-field advantage between Wisconsin and Minnesota has totally eroded in head-to-head play as road teams are on a 10-1 ATS surge in the rivalry. That would seem to benefit Wisconsin here, and the Badgers are suddenly hot, winners of four straight games ATS (2-2 SU) after seemingly bottoming out following a 34-0 loss to Ohio State last month. 

However, after assuring the public that head coach Luke Fickell would stay after this season, the team has suddenly found something to build on. They’ve been solid all year on the defensive side of the ball, but last week’s win over Illinois was arguably their best offensive outing of 2025. Can they keep it going against a Minnesota team that has already clinched a bowl bid, but it is just 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four? I would think so, since the Gophers have yielded 35.3 PPG in that skid. Head coach PJ Fleck’s team is also only scoring 23.8 PPG, putting them in a difficult cover spot for this one: Some of the best season-finale types of teams to fade have been the winning teams that don’t score a lot, as teams with winning records and scoring 24 PPG or fewer have gone just 20-20 SU and 12-29 ATS (29.3%) in their season finale games.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll ride Wisconsin -1.5 to continue the late season surge

UCLA at USC

I’m not sure what it is, but there hasn’t been a time this season when I really felt like USC was an elite team. This week, in a huge rivalry contest versus UCLA, the Trojans are priced like an elite team, even though they no longer have playoff aspirations and are simply looking ahead to an end-of-season bowl game. As it is, since 2015, home favorites of more than 20 points are 59-6 SU but just 26-39 ATS (40%) in season finale games. 

Head coach Lincoln Riley’s team also falls into this overpriced late-season angle: In games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 128-14 SU but just 60-76-2 ATS (44.1%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 45-12 SU and 34-23 ATS (59.6%) since 2017. 

If you’re familiar with USC’s tendencies lately, you should know that they have lost 15 of the last 21 games ATS as favorites in conference play. The Bruins are struggling currently, but did show great signs of life around midseason and should be motivated by the rivalry aspect of this tilt. Road teams have covered five in a row in this series.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: I’ll back UCLA +22.5 against heavy DK backing on USC

Oregon at Washington

Another key rivalry contest comes Saturday afternoon in Washington as Oregon tries to wrap up a CFP spot by beating the upset-minded Huskies. Highly priced road chalk can be dangerous sometimes in college football, but not late in the season: In games Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 141-36 SU and 98-76-3 ATS (56.3%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017. 

Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 120-17 SU and 77-57-3 ATS (57.5%) in that same Week 12 and later time span. The Ducks have put up 30 points or more on Washington in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings and are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine visits to UW in Seattle. 

The Huskies have been wildly inconsistent this season, although their struggles have been patternable, having scored 23 points in three games, all losses, versus the three best defensive teams they’ve faced. Oregon certainly fits that bill. Plus, Washington is 4-9 ATS (30.8%) following outright wins since 2024.

College Football Week 14 Best Bet: Give me Oregon -7 to wrap up the CFP berth

For more college football Week 14 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 14 hub, exclusively on VSiN.