Navy vs. Memphis Prediction: College Football Week 14

Navy vs. Memphis

Thanksgiving seems to be an all-or-nothing holiday. Sure, the food is always the best part, but we all have that aunt, uncle, cousin, brother, sister, grandparent, parent, or newcomer to the family gathering that will say something cringeworthy or start a political argument. Those who can isolate themselves by watching football in between crushing carbs probably have the best days out of anybody. Usually that means watching NFL or college football on the TV. This year, Navy vs. Memphis is the lone CFB matchup.

To be fair, it seems awfully fitting that an offense with some roots in the wishbone plays on Turkey Day. If you can yank the remote away from the holder to flip this one on or go picture-in-picture, it could be a fun American Conference finale for these two teams.

Odds from Circa Sports as of November 24, 1:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 14 College Football Picks and Predictions.

Navy at Memphis (-6, 59.5)

7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Yes, this is still Navy’s American Conference finale, even though they will play the Army-Navy Game on December 13. That game has been designated a non-conference game because it would interfere with determining who plays in the conference championship game eight days prior. Navy still has the chance to do that, as they’ll need a win here and some rather significant help from Charlotte against Tulane.

Given that they probably won’t get it, they’ll just focus on what they can control and that’s beating Memphis for the second straight season. The Tigers had won five in a row prior to last year’s 56-44 loss in Annapolis. In that respect, it’s a bit of a revenge game for Ryan Silverfield’s team, though who knows what’s on his mind with a lot of head coaching jobs available and more to come.

Memphis was right in the mix for the American Conference title and maybe even the Group of Five CFP berth, but the Tigers have dropped two one-score games in a row and are literally and figuratively limping to the finish line. QB Brendon Lewis really gutted out a 34-31 win over USF that could have been a springboard to the College Football Playoff, but he’s still fighting through that and the Tigers have faltered on defense of late, allowing at least 31 points in four of their last five games.

Navy really shook up the CFP picture with their 41-38 win over South Florida on Nov. 15. Both teams are on 11 days rest for this one, as Memphis will await their bowl assignment and Navy will keep practicing in hopes of beating Army for the second straight season. The downtime had to be good for battered and bruised QB Blake Horvath, who missed the game against Notre Dame and had to be replaced multiple times in the win over USF.

Braxton Woodson has done a good job in his backup role, but Horvath is the straw stirring the drink for the Middies. He’s completed over 62% of his passes and leads the team with 986 rushing yards. Horvath is likely to pass Ricky Dobbs for ninth all-time in passing yards here and recently cracked the top-10 in rushing yards. Among QB with at least 120 pass attempts, Horvath only trails Roger Staubach in career completion percentage.

Lewis has rushed for 582 yards himself on a team-high 131 carries, so we have two mobile QBs here and probably not a lot of negative plays. Lewis only has 13 TD passes, but he’s completed nearly 72% of his throws. With a Navy defense that ranks 118th in the nation in yards per play allowed and a Memphis defense that is 68th, but has allowed 5.85 YPP in seven conference games, you can see why this total is approaching 60.

Both teams are better at defending the run than the pass, so that’s where the big plays will come. Because Memphis is a little more balanced, I think that helps them here, along with the fact that I don’t know how healthy Horvath is.

Pick: Memphis -6

Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 14 games on our Pro Picks Page.