College Basketball Bets
Only eight college basketball games are on the slate for Thursday, as the Iowa vs. Iowa State rivalry game stands head, shoulders, knees, and toes above the rest of the games on the docket. With exams going on and winter break looming, keeping the focus on hoops can be tough for players, and especially tough for students. As I’ve been preaching throughout the week, alter your home-court advantage values for the next few weeks.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Saint Joseph’s Hawks at Syracuse Orange (-13.5, 143.5)
9 p.m. ET
A late start at the venue formerly known as the Carrier Dome, as Saint Joseph’s and Syracuse play a 9 p.m. tip in upstate New York. The strength of schedule hasn’t been strong at all, but the Hawks seem to have figured some things out after a three-game losing streak on the road in mid-November, dropping games to Virginia Tech, Penn, and UNLV. They had a solid defensive performance in a win over Princeton and a good offensive effort to beat Temple.
Syracuse had a three-game skid of their own, but that came against Houston, Kansas, and Iowa State before beating Tennessee last time out, so they’ve really played some quality competition of late. They should keep it rolling as double-digit favorites in each of their next five games at home before starting conference play on New Year’s Eve.
Syracuse played Binghamton, Delaware State, and Drexel to open up the season and dominated those three teams, who are all 100 or more spots lower than Saint Joseph’s. The Hawks fall somewhere in between for Syracuse’s schedule.
Both teams fall around the national average in tempo. Neither team can shoot 3s. Saint Joe’s is shooting just 28.3% from deep, while Syracuse is shooting 29%. The Orange are also shooting just 57.3% at the free throw line. The Hawks are among the nation’s leaders at 80.5%, but they also don’t get to the stripe a lot.
But, there are a few reasons why I’m okay with laying the number tonight. First, Syracuse is at home, which could help their shooting numbers, which have been hurt by the last four games against very good teams. Second, per CBB Analytics, Syracuse ranks in the 97th percentile in percentage of points scored in the paint. Even with that tough recent schedule, they were able to get inside on those teams, ranking in the 78th percentile in percentage of paint points over the last five games.
Saint Joseph’s relies on a lot of jump shots. Per Haslametrics, the Hawks are 268th in Proximity, which is a measure of average distance on shots taken. Not only that, but Syracuse is converting at nearly 66% when they do get inside and they are limiting opponents to 51.5% on their Close Two shot attempts.
With eight days off after the Tennessee win, Syracuse has been able to take a breath and should have been able to fix anything that has been a problem in games or in practice.
Pick: Syracuse -13.5 (-105)
